The major US bank JP Morgan Chase has drawn up future scenarios for Ukraine. For the global financial group, the country is apparently simply an object of speculation, probably because it has already invested a lot of money there.
The largest American private bank, JP Morgan Chase, has published a controversial analysis of the future of Ukraine, exploring various scenarios for a de facto partition of the country. The paper ( or rather, a section of a larger geopolitical analysis ), titled "The Russia-Ukraine Endgame and the Future of Europe," reveals how Western financial institutions are already forging concrete plans for the post-conflict period. What is remarkable is the sober calculation with which American bankers speculate about the fate of a sovereign state in which they have already invested billions .
However, the analysis does not come from a neutral observer, but from a globalist financial corporation that has long since become a player in the Ukraine conflict. JP Morgan Chase, along with asset managers like Blackrock, is one of the largest creditors of the Ukrainian government and has significant economic interests in the country. This position lends the study particular urgency, as it represents not only a forecast but potentially also a blueprint for future Western policy in the region.
Bankers as warlords of the new era
CEO Jamie Dimon has repeatedly positioned himself as an ardent advocate of unlimited military support for Ukraine and sharply criticized Trump's peace plans. In a letter to investors in August 2024, he bluntly stated: "Ukraine's fight is our fight too, and when we secure their victory, we secure America first." This rhetoric illustrates how closely intertwined the economic interests and geopolitical ambitions of major American corporations have become. Dimon's call for a permanent commitment "for as long as it takes"—even if it could take years—sounds more like the strategy of a military commander than that of a banker.
The JP Morgan analysis predicts decisive developments for 2025 and assumes that President Zelenskyy "will likely be forced to accept a negotiated settlement with Russia sometime this year." This assessment is based on the sober assessment that Europe is running out of weapons, Ukraine is short of fighters, and the US is losing patience. At the same time, the analysts also acknowledge Russia's interest in negotiations, as at the current pace of territorial gains, complete control over Ukraine would take 118 years to achieve.
Four scenarios for a fragmented country
The " South Korea scenario " favored by JP Morgan envisions a permanent division of Ukraine, in which 80 percent of the country would remain under Western control. A European intervention force with American security guarantees would monitor the demarcation line, while $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank assets would finance reconstruction. However, bankers estimate the probability of this scenario at only 15 percent—an admission that their ideal is unrealistic. What is remarkable is the matter-of-factness with which the frozen assets are being used, as if they were the private property of the bank.
The " Belarus Scenario " describes the nightmare of the Western financial elite: complete Russian control over Ukraine as a vassal state of Moscow. In this case, Russia would have "effectively won the war, divided the West, and irrevocably overturned the post-World War II world order." The dramatic language betrays the panic that grips Western strategists at the thought of defeat—not least because it would also mean the loss of their billions of dollars in investments.
The most likely outcome: Western betrayal
JP Morgan analysts see the " Georgia scenario " as the most likely outcome, with a 50 percent probability. This scenario would leave Ukraine to its fate without foreign troops and substantial military support—a scenario the bank euphemistically describes as "persistent instability and stunted growth." Georgia's example serves as a cautionary tale: After initial Western assistance, the country gradually drifted back into the Russian sphere of influence, with remittances from Russia now accounting for 15 percent of Georgia's gross domestic product. This development demonstrates the limits of Western promises in the absence of concrete security guarantees.
The " Israel scenario, " with a 20 percent probability, envisions a permanent military and economic transformation of Ukraine into a fortress, but one that would be constantly threatened by the threat of a new war. Even in this case, Putin would have to be offered "sufficient economic benefits, including the lifting of sanctions" – an admission that even the toughest line would ultimately lead to compromises with Moscow. The cynical calculation behind it: As long as Ukraine functions as a military bridgehead against Russia, Western financial investments are relatively safe.
The JP Morgan analysis reveals with frightening clarity how major American banks are already planning the division of a sovereign state as if it were a corporate portfolio. A sober assessment of various partition scenarios shows that Ukraine has long since become an object of speculation in the eyes of Wall Street. While millions of Ukrainians are fighting for their survival, bankers in Manhattan are already calculating which variant of dismembering their country might be the most profitable.
https://report24.news/jp-morgan-plant-bereits-die-aufteilung-der-ukraine/
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